Climate Change Knowledge.org
ASSESSMENTS
Climate Change Knowledge
The 2013-2014 IPCC AR5 fifth assessment report confirms the findings of the 2007 AR4, making the AR4 still an important source of the science. The AR5 differs from the AR4 by
The IPCC (InterGOVERNMENTAL) is government controlled. The IPCC assessments are the source of science recognized by governments. It draws no conclusions on climate dangers and makes no recommendations.
The final and deciding part of the assessment is the economics which says (last page) - Limited and early analytical results from integrated analyses of the global costs and benefits of mitigation indicate that these are broadly comparable in magnitude, but do not as yet permit an unambiguous determination of an emissions pathway or stabilisation level where benefits exceed costs.
There are in fact two kinds of IPCC reports one called Summary for Policymakers and the other Technical Summaries,
The policymaker summaries are the IPCC reports that are reported in the media. They are the only climate change science (from any source) relied on by governments and used in international discussions.
Climate change science largely relies on computer models developed by the scientists.
The reliability of the models depends on the adequacy of the research and recorded data.
The IPCC has always said the model results are not predictions but only possible projections and that there will be 'surprises', because the modelers cannot anticipate all factors. However everyone relies of the model results as if they were reliable predictions.
The other big source for the science assessments is 'paleo climate' from records in nature of the distant past.
The best known are the ice cores.
Other past sources of data are tree rings and pollens.
James Hansen now says that paleoclimate evidence is a moire reliable source of data that the computer models.
The models have confirmed that global warming really is being caused by industrial GHG emissioons, and they have confirmed the many impacts expected to be caused by global warming. How ever when it comes to giving an idea of how fast these impacts will be in coming the models are provong to greatly underestimate.
The IPCC (InterGOVERNMENTAL) is government controlled. The IPCC assessments are the source of science recognized by governments. It draws no conclusions on climate dangers and makes no recommendations.
The final and deciding part of the assessment is the economics which says (last page) - Limited and early analytical results from integrated analyses of the global costs and benefits of mitigation indicate that these are broadly comparable in magnitude, but do not as yet permit an unambiguous determination of an emissions pathway or stabilisation level where benefits exceed costs.
There are in fact two kinds of IPCC reports one called Summary for Policymakers and the other Technical Summaries,
The policymaker summaries are the IPCC reports that are reported in the media. They are the only climate change science (from any source) relied on by governments and used in international discussions.
Climate change science largely relies on computer models developed by the scientists.
The reliability of the models depends on the adequacy of the research and recorded data.
The IPCC has always said the model results are not predictions but only possible projections and that there will be 'surprises', because the modelers cannot anticipate all factors. However everyone relies of the model results as if they were reliable predictions.
The other big source for the science assessments is 'paleo climate' from records in nature of the distant past.
The best known are the ice cores.
Other past sources of data are tree rings and pollens.
James Hansen now says that paleoclimate evidence is a moire reliable source of data that the computer models.
The models have confirmed that global warming really is being caused by industrial GHG emissioons, and they have confirmed the many impacts expected to be caused by global warming. How ever when it comes to giving an idea of how fast these impacts will be in coming the models are provong to greatly underestimate.
The IPCC Frequently asked questions (FAQ) is a good short source of the important science.
Assessments
Quick climate change assessents
The radiative forcing or heat added to the climate system by the increased atmospheric
greenhouse levels. The global temperature increase alone is a poor indicator of the total global heating. Most of the added heat is from the accumulation of CO2 inthe atmosphere, though methane has probably contributed more than is estimated. Nitrous oxide is increasing the fastest int he atmosphere. The radiative forcing includes the heat energy being used warming the ocean and melting ice that is not reflected by the surface temperature increase.
IGPB climate change index adds three other measures of warming to the global average temperature increase making a much more reliable indicator of heating. Most of the added GHG heat has gone to warming the ocean which causes sea level rise. A lot of the heat has gone to melting planetary ice and loss of Arctic summer sea ice is a highly visible measure of that.
Allianz Open Knowledge (insurance) excellent easy up to date climate science
http://knowledge.allianz.com/environment/climate_change/
Formal assessments
For impacts to come the asssessments rely on future projecting computer models.
The models how ever still do not include the very greatest impacts and so these are missing from the assessments
It is becoing generaly recognized now taht the IPCC model based projections of impacts have greatly underestimated the pace of climate changes and the sensitivity of the climate system.
There are three of these worst catastrophic impacts.
1. Multiple amplifying carbon feedbacks
These include large forest diebacks, methane from peatlands and all three main GHGs from thawing pemafrost.
The greatest single planetary catatsrophe fro global warming is an explosive release of methane gas from sea floor frozen solid methane has hydrates- this is not in the assessment.
2. Multiple adverse impacts from global wamring and climate change on agriclture.
The models do not yet capture about half of the known adverse impacts like prolonged drought and large floods, making the assessments huge underestimates.
3. Ocean warming and acidification
The oceans are the largest part and ultimate controller of the climate system.
Life in the oceans can survive without life on land but terrestrial life cannot surive if the oceans die.
Warming and acidifcation kill ocean life and slow life giving cleansing ocean currents.
Dying stagnant oceans would give of deadly gases killing life on land.
The assessments
US federal draft climate change assessment 2013 for public feedback
Stern Commission Economics of Climate Change 2006 Archives , exec summary, presentation
The Stern review was in fact a good overall climate assessment and still the best there is onthe economics.
It is still a good source.
On the all important economics, it remains the only reasonable economic assessment.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 IPCC website (and below)
The IPCC assessments is the only science used by governments for policy making and negotiations. It is far too conservative because the science is compromised by policy makers who sit onthe panel.
Copenhagen 2009 Climate Science Congress Site for 2009 papers , synthesis report
This large conference of climate experts was held to update the 2007 IPCC assessment because many IPCC projections had already proved to be dangerous underestimates.
How ever only the IPCC assessment was tabled for the 2009 UN Climate Conference.
US National Academies Press NAP climate change collection
National research Council Climate Stabilization Targets NRC 2010 (the best assessment )
This is a comprehensive science assessment.
Climate Change: Evidence, Impacts, and Choices (NRC booklet 2012)
DARA 2012 Climate Vulnerability Monitor: estimated 400,000 people a year are being killed by global climate change. The then is the most important assessment.
Climate Change The Crtical Decade 2010 Australia Climate Commission
Climate Stabilization Targets 2011 National Research Council. Possibly the best climate change assessment.
Quick climate change assessents
The radiative forcing or heat added to the climate system by the increased atmospheric
greenhouse levels. The global temperature increase alone is a poor indicator of the total global heating. Most of the added heat is from the accumulation of CO2 inthe atmosphere, though methane has probably contributed more than is estimated. Nitrous oxide is increasing the fastest int he atmosphere. The radiative forcing includes the heat energy being used warming the ocean and melting ice that is not reflected by the surface temperature increase.
IGPB climate change index adds three other measures of warming to the global average temperature increase making a much more reliable indicator of heating. Most of the added GHG heat has gone to warming the ocean which causes sea level rise. A lot of the heat has gone to melting planetary ice and loss of Arctic summer sea ice is a highly visible measure of that.
Allianz Open Knowledge (insurance) excellent easy up to date climate science
http://knowledge.allianz.com/environment/climate_change/
Formal assessments
For impacts to come the asssessments rely on future projecting computer models.
The models how ever still do not include the very greatest impacts and so these are missing from the assessments
It is becoing generaly recognized now taht the IPCC model based projections of impacts have greatly underestimated the pace of climate changes and the sensitivity of the climate system.
There are three of these worst catastrophic impacts.
1. Multiple amplifying carbon feedbacks
These include large forest diebacks, methane from peatlands and all three main GHGs from thawing pemafrost.
The greatest single planetary catatsrophe fro global warming is an explosive release of methane gas from sea floor frozen solid methane has hydrates- this is not in the assessment.
2. Multiple adverse impacts from global wamring and climate change on agriclture.
The models do not yet capture about half of the known adverse impacts like prolonged drought and large floods, making the assessments huge underestimates.
3. Ocean warming and acidification
The oceans are the largest part and ultimate controller of the climate system.
Life in the oceans can survive without life on land but terrestrial life cannot surive if the oceans die.
Warming and acidifcation kill ocean life and slow life giving cleansing ocean currents.
Dying stagnant oceans would give of deadly gases killing life on land.
The assessments
US federal draft climate change assessment 2013 for public feedback
Stern Commission Economics of Climate Change 2006 Archives , exec summary, presentation
The Stern review was in fact a good overall climate assessment and still the best there is onthe economics.
It is still a good source.
On the all important economics, it remains the only reasonable economic assessment.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 IPCC website (and below)
The IPCC assessments is the only science used by governments for policy making and negotiations. It is far too conservative because the science is compromised by policy makers who sit onthe panel.
Copenhagen 2009 Climate Science Congress Site for 2009 papers , synthesis report
This large conference of climate experts was held to update the 2007 IPCC assessment because many IPCC projections had already proved to be dangerous underestimates.
How ever only the IPCC assessment was tabled for the 2009 UN Climate Conference.
US National Academies Press NAP climate change collection
National research Council Climate Stabilization Targets NRC 2010 (the best assessment )
This is a comprehensive science assessment.
Climate Change: Evidence, Impacts, and Choices (NRC booklet 2012)
DARA 2012 Climate Vulnerability Monitor: estimated 400,000 people a year are being killed by global climate change. The then is the most important assessment.
Climate Change The Crtical Decade 2010 Australia Climate Commission
Climate Stabilization Targets 2011 National Research Council. Possibly the best climate change assessment.
Copenhagen
2009 Climate Science Congress Synthesis Report
Key points pdf
Key points pdf
Indigenous Peoples
Climate Change Assessment
A proposed process under the United Nations University.
Peoples Climate Agreement of Cochabamba 2010
The only global peoples agreement that was the outcome of an large interpeoples conference hosted by the government of Bolivia following the failure of the big UN Copenhagen Conference failue.
The proposals are well grounded in the science and social justice.
Today, our Mother Earth is wounded and the future of humanity is in danger.
If global warming increases by more than 2 degrees Celsius, a situation that the “Copenhagen Accord” could lead to, there is a 50% probability that the damages caused to our Mother Earth will be completely irreversible. Between 20% and 30% of species would be in danger of disappearing. Large extensions of forest would be affected, droughts and floods would affect different regions of the planet, deserts would expand, and the melting of the polar ice caps and the glaciers in the Andes and Himalayas would worsen. Many island states would disappear, and Africa would suffer an increase in temperature of more than 3 degrees Celsius. Likewise, the production of food would diminish in the world, causing catastrophic impact on the survival of inhabitants from vast regions in the planet, and the number of people in the world suffering from hunger would increase dramatically, a figure that already exceeds 1.02 billion people.The corporations and governments of the so-called “developed” countries, in complicity with a segment of the scientific community, have led us to discuss climate change as a problem limited to the rise in temperature without questioning the cause, which is the capitalist system.
We confront the terminal crisis of a civilizing model that is patriarchal and based on the submission and destruction of human beings and nature that accelerated since the industrial revolution.
A proposed process under the United Nations University.
Peoples Climate Agreement of Cochabamba 2010
The only global peoples agreement that was the outcome of an large interpeoples conference hosted by the government of Bolivia following the failure of the big UN Copenhagen Conference failue.
The proposals are well grounded in the science and social justice.
Today, our Mother Earth is wounded and the future of humanity is in danger.
If global warming increases by more than 2 degrees Celsius, a situation that the “Copenhagen Accord” could lead to, there is a 50% probability that the damages caused to our Mother Earth will be completely irreversible. Between 20% and 30% of species would be in danger of disappearing. Large extensions of forest would be affected, droughts and floods would affect different regions of the planet, deserts would expand, and the melting of the polar ice caps and the glaciers in the Andes and Himalayas would worsen. Many island states would disappear, and Africa would suffer an increase in temperature of more than 3 degrees Celsius. Likewise, the production of food would diminish in the world, causing catastrophic impact on the survival of inhabitants from vast regions in the planet, and the number of people in the world suffering from hunger would increase dramatically, a figure that already exceeds 1.02 billion people.The corporations and governments of the so-called “developed” countries, in complicity with a segment of the scientific community, have led us to discuss climate change as a problem limited to the rise in temperature without questioning the cause, which is the capitalist system.
We confront the terminal crisis of a civilizing model that is patriarchal and based on the submission and destruction of human beings and nature that accelerated since the industrial revolution.
